With barely 10 months to the 2027 general elections, the political atmosphere in Borno is getting charged, with an unusual spike in the tempo of uncertainties across various interest groups...READ FULL; FROM THE SOURCE.
A wide range of political permutations and jostling on who will replace Prof. Babagana Umara Zulum, as his tenure gradually comes to an end, is cascading into everyday discussions.
Even though there is no formal declaration from any aspirant to contest, and no party endorsement, discussions remain within political circles about whom the cap fits.
Traditionally, and at the onset of the Fourth Republic, Borno politicians within the APP, then the ANPP, and now the APC, have generally kept their ambitions to their chest, while the incumbent governor acts as the ultimate gatekeeper of the ticket.
But last month, at the All Progressives Congress (APC) stakeholders’ meeting in Maiduguri, Governor Zulum dismissed speculation that he has an anointed candidate who will succeed him.
“I have no candidate for any position, and I do not know who will succeed me. I have entrusted the choice of leaders to Almighty Allah, in line with the democratic will of party members and the people of Borno State,” he said.
While in some corners the declaration was received with mixed reactions, others believe that the governor had thrown the race open for all interested APC members to seek the party’s governorship ticket.
Yet, there are others who believe that the governor was also being conscious of the fact that, unlike any other time in the history of Borno State, there is a sitting vice president from the state now, in the person of Senator Kashim Shettima, who is also a member of the ruling APC and would naturally have an interest in who becomes the governor in his home state.
However, the intriguing question among political observers and party faithful is whether the pattern of succession established by the previous governors will work this time around.
There are allegations that a brother of the governor, Abubakar Umara Zulum, and former Governor Sheriff are allegedly adding impetus to the nocturnal plans by the governor to have his way in choosing a successor.
But by virtue of his position, pundits believe Shettima should have a say in who becomes the next governor, considering the role he played way back in 2019, which culminated in the emergence of Zulum as governor.
But beyond the public rhetoric, credible sources told the Weekend Trust that there is a ‘cold struggle’, as the governor has reportedly made up his mind to have the Commissioner of Education, Engr. Lawan Abba Wakilbe, as his successor, and the head of one of the key agencies from the southern part of Borno as deputy governor.
If this stands, sources said Zulum would have upended the plan of the vice president and a few stakeholders from the state to have the Minister of Agriculture, Senator Abubakar Kyari, or the Senator representing Borno Central, Kaka Shehu Lawan SAN, as the next governor.
Going back memory lane
Weekend Trust reports that in 1999, Sen. Ali Modu Sheriff established a succession pattern, an intentional political structure that first produced Governor Mala Kachalla.
Thereafter, Sheriff’s influence became more visible when he singlehandedly denied Mala Kachalla the second-term ticket, over alleged perceived disloyalty, and rode on the same ticket to become the governor in 2003.
After his two terms, Sheriff endorsed the present vice president, Shettima, as his successor, following the killing of his anointed candidate, Modu Fannami Gubio.
Having served eight years in office, when Shettima prepared to vacate office in 2019, he initially maintained a dramatic air of neutrality by allowing 21 ambitious aspirants to get nomination forms.
But with the reported endorsement of the Borno Elders Forum (BEF) and other notable personalities, Shettima later threw his weight behind Zulum, describing him as courageous and one of his inner cabinet who understood the state’s administrative machinery.
For now, beyond the cat-and-mouse game between Zulum and his benefactor, Shettima, speculations within the ranks of the APC are that a new scenario, ahead of the emergence of the gubernatorial candidate, will play out in the next few months.
In the interim, among the names frequently mentioned in this regard, apart from Senators Kyari and Kaka Shehu, are Hon. Ali Bukar Dalori (Deputy National Chairman of the APC); Senator Mohammed Tahir Monguno; Senator Baba Kaka Garbai; Engr. Adam Bababe; and Alhaji Kyari Dikwa.
Strength and weaknesses of ‘aspirants’
Ali Bukar Dalori, one of the strongest contenders, is a former state chairman of the APC and currently the Deputy National Chairman of APC (North), and is widely regarded as a grassroots politician who spent many years building networks across communities.
Since the return of democracy in 1999, Dalori has been a strong pillar of the party that always contributes to the success of all successive governors in the state.
He is also a close ally of the vice president, Shettima, the current governor, Zulum, and also relates well with the former governor of the state, Sen. Sheriff, and is a darling son of the Borno Elders Forum.
However, feelers are of the belief that Dalori, who has a master’s degree in Public Administration, may be a candidate to beat, but his level of bureaucratic exposure may be a factor that will work against him.
Kaka Shehu Lawan
Another prominent figure being mentioned in the succession plan is Sen. Kaka Shehu Lawan (SAN). He was the Attorney General and Commissioner of Justice during the tenure of Shettima as governor and the first tenure of Governor Zulum, during which he also headed high-powered committees.
He was at one time a gubernatorial aspirant in 2019 and is now the senator representing Borno Central.
It was learnt that Kaka Shehu is in the good books of Shettima and other prominent politicians in the state, and that his legal pedigree, relationship with the youths in Borno, among other virtues, could give him an edge in the event a free and fair primary is organised.
Baba Kaka Bashir Garbai
He served as the Commissioner of Local Government & Chieftaincy Affairs when Shettima was the governor in Borno. He also served as the Senator representing Borno Central Senatorial District in the 8th National Assembly (2015–2019) under the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
A younger brother to the Shehu of Borno, Kaka Bashir also vied for the governorship in 2019.
Senator Tahir Monguno
He was also a former commissioner during the tenure of Senator Ali Modu Sheriff as governor, a ranking House of Representatives member, and currently the Chief Whip of the Senate.
Many people believe that he would be the perfect man for the job, considering his good understanding of governance and legislative procedures.
Senator Abubakar Kyari
Currently serving as the Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Kyari is one of the names frequently mentioned as a likely replacement of Governor Zulum.
Kyari had represented Borno North Senatorial District in the Senate from 2015 until his resignation in April 2022 to become the APC Deputy National Chairman (North), where he also acted briefly as APC National Chairman in 2023.
Kyari is a long-time political associate of Vice President Shettima. Previously, he contested for the governorship position but stepped aside for the party’s consensus in past cycles.
Many analysts believed that he is one of the contenders that would have the nod of the vice president.
Also, politicians in the state view him as one of the few with the intellectual and academic credentials to lead the state.
However, some sources said he is too bureaucratic and would find it difficult to navigate the political turbulence of the state.
Alhaji Kyari Dikwa
He is the former Accountant-General of Borno State under Ali Modu Sheriff.
Kyari is the founder of Al-Ansar Foundation that is involved in several philanthropic activities, which makes him very popular and may work in his favour in the election.
However, many said he’s a political novice.
Another silent name that has echoed in the succession conversation is Dr. Usman Mohammed Shettima. He is currently serving as Senior Special Assistant on Administration and Office Coordination to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the Office of the Vice President.
He is a political novice with a professional background in banking and finance, having worked in the Central Bank of Nigeria for many years.
He is described as a close ally of Governor Zulum, and a family relation to Vice President Kashim Shettima, which could be a factor that may help him secure the ticket with their support.
However, feelers are of the belief that, being a political novice, he lacks the political structure and spread to ride on, which could be a major obstacle for him to secure the ticket.
Another contender is Engr. Bukar Adam Bababe, the Executive Secretary of the Borno Geographical Information Service (BOGIS).
Many people view him as one of the potential successors because of his loyalty to his boss, Governor Babagana Umara Zulum, and commitment to excellence in the assignments he undertakes.
It is evident that, within the few years he served the BOGIS, a lot of reforms were implemented that have modernised land administration in the state, but he remains unpopular within the broader political structure of the state.
Analysts are of the belief that his political standing and lack of strong alignment with the camp of Vice President Kashim Shettima may work against him.
Mele Kyari is the immediate past Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, who has done so much for the state while serving.
Under Kyari, the NNPC established the electricity generation gas plant, which ended the two-year blackout of Maiduguri, and resumed the abandoned oil drilling at Wadi-B in Jere Local Government Area of the state.
Sources close to the party revealed that high-level talks are ongoing to bring Kyari on board as a consensus candidate to put the long battle of the former aspirants, who are still nursing the ambition, to rest.
However, many analysts described him as a political novice who has no political experience to win an election, but relies on the structure of the party, which could betray him at the slightest opportunity.
