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Nigeria’s Super Eagles still have a chance, no matter how slim, to make it to the 2026 FIFA World Cup. A door is opening, even though their fate is no longer in their hands. It awfully and painfully slipped away in Bloemfontein, last Tuesday.
Their possible route is now anchored on permutations, serious prayers and calculations. One possible option is for the team to win the remaining two matches – one away to the already eliminated Lesotho in South Africa and the other, a home match with Benin, a serious candidate.
The scenario runs thus:
If Nigeria win their remaining two matches with high goal margins and South Africa loses theirs, the consequence is that the Super Eagles will top the Group C table!
*The high scores proposed will enable them overturn the goal difference advantage South Africa have, in the event of equality in points if South Africa should lose their remaining matches to the already eliminated Zimbabwe and contending Rwanda.
The snag here is that both matches as well as the Lesotho versus Nigeria duel will be played on South African soil.
Alternatively, by winning the two matches with high scorelines and South Africa topping the table, the Super Eagles will get to their possible maximum of 17 points and could rank among the top four groups’ runners-up owing to the anticipated high goal difference.
That way, they go through the long route of continental and inter-continental play-offs. This scenario is akin to “winning the lottery twice”—extremely unlikely.
Aiming to rank high among the possible groups’ runners-up look a more likely option. But this path is also hugely challenging.
Even with maximum points (17), Nigeria would still trail teams like Gabon, Madagascar, Congo, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, and Uganda.
Gabon, already has 19 points and is thus assured of a play-off slot. So, only three slots are available for contest for now. The duo of Madagascar and DR Congo already have 16 points and thus closer to obtaining a play-off ticket than Nigeria.
Yet another four – Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Namibia and Uganda are already on 14 points. Namibia, still have an arithmetical chance of toping the Group H even with their current 14 points.
The same applies to Group E’s current second-placed team, Tanzania who incidentally have 10 points.
In summary, Nigeria’s path is laced with landmines. The Super Eagles will need heavy goal margin wins in the two matches and hope South Africa lose their own two against Zimbabwe and Rwanda.
Should that happen, Nigeria, South Africa and Benin will finish equal on 17 points and goal difference will be the tie-breaker. The 17-point projection for Benin is based on their possible defeat of Rwanda in Kigali.
But if that does not happen, two wins by the Super Eagles will assure the team of a second position placement and possible play-off slot.
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